Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Stan O'Neal: biography and strategy


Read about Stan O'Neal courtesy of the Times online. This article was not written by me credit is given to Tom Bawden in New York.
Stan O’Neal’s ignominious departure from Merrill Lynch comes after a long and distinguished career which saw him rise from the shop floor of General Motors to head one of Wall Street’s most powerful firms.
The 56-year old-grandson of freed slaves got off to a tremendous start at the helm as he began to dismantle the "Mother Merrill" culture, which accepted lower profit margins in place of risk.
Mr O’Neal, who took the top job in 2002, set about cutting costs through mass redundancies at the same time as stepping up the group’s exposure to higher-margin areas such as loans and equity for leveraged buyouts, commodities and risky "sub-prime" mortgages.
Mr O’Neal’s move away from Merrill’s core stock underwriting and money management business into a higher octane group investing more of its own money initially paid significant dividends. The bank’s profits quickly more than doubled to average at more than $5 billion annually between 2003 and 2006 and the share price soared.
In 2006, Merrill made a $7 billion profit investing from its own balance sheet, compared with $2.2 billion in 2002. But the group became increasingly ambitious, hiking up investment in so-called collatorised debt obligations, or pools of bonds largely backed by sub-prime mortgages, from about $1 billion 18 months ago to more than $40 billion.
Those investments were largely responsible for an $8.4 billion writedown, announced last week, which gave Merrill its largest quarterly loss, of $2.24 billion, in its 93-year history.
Some analysts are predicting that Merrill will take a further $4 billion writedown this quarter as the fallout from America’s housing crisis continues to force down the value of these "CDOs".
Adam Compton, an analyst at RCM Investors, said: "A lot of the damage stems from the attempt to change a culture that was inherently against risk – which blew up in its face."
Mr O’Neal grew up in poverty in the Deep South, among the cottonfields of Wedowee, Alabama. A golf fanatic, he had speech training to modify his southern drawl and methodically worked his way up the ranks from the assembly line at General Motors' plant in Doraville, Georgia.
He enrolled on a programme that helped workers attend college and graduated from the General Motors Institute, now Kettering University. From there he won a scholarship to study for an MBA at Harvard Business School which led to a job at GM’s treasurer’s office.
He joined Merrill Lynch in 1986, age 35, working in its junk bond department, which he was heading three years later.
Mr O’Neal’s single-minded determination did not frequently translate into consensus building. It is understood that he often drove through his own agenda, with minimal discussion, in a pattern which culminated in his unsolicited approach to Wachovia this month to see if it might be willing to acquire his firm.
That approach, which came to nothing, is thought to have infuriated the board, not least because it smacked of desperation.
Mr O’Neal also had a habit of cutting long-term staff that were loyal to the group and had a wealth of experience. In one such move he ousted three long-term bond executives – Jeffrey Kronthal, Harry Lengsfield and Doug DeMartin, in July 2006 – three people who might have helped steer Merrill Lynch through its sub-prime woes.
As he contemplates his time at Merrill Lynch, Mr O’Neal may question the wisdom of the strategy he voiced in 2002: "The Mother Merrill, cradle-to-grave thing isn’t possible to do. It’s not even smart to do."

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Petrodollar Power


Dear all,

I took a break from updating my blog due to the rapid changes in the financial world in reality I could not keep up and as I write Merrill Lynch have ousted CEO Stan O’Neal due to the bank’s horrendous exposure to the sub-prime crisis writing off an incredible $8.4bn with more to come. Both Merrill Lynch and USB warned of more losses and with Citigroup not exposing true losses I feel we are in for more shocks and senior heads at these banks to go. However don’t shed a tear for these high paid execs O’Neal is reported to walk away with more than $200 million (£97million) in company holdings and retirement benefits. He will be remembered for the biggest losses in the Bank’s history. Market reaction to O’Neal’s departure was shares closed up 1.33 cents at $62.47 as investors’ awaited further news on O’Neal’s successor.

Remember some week ago I wrote about the dollar’s woes? Well the US and the World economy are in for more shock, the dollar is at a 26 year low against sterling (£) with £1 worth $2.066 and rising especially with the Fed undecided on how much to cut this week’s interest rate. I see a further 0.25% cut and more dollar losses, Canadians are having a good time also as the loony is at a 47 year high against the dollar, you may well ask what’s going on, well the Bush administration’s handling of the economy is at the heart of the problem all this free spending, the funding of the Iraq war, military hardware procurement a government living beyond its means. If it was an individual he would be declared bankrupt. Now the most worrying aspects of this is the rise of economic strength in China, the Far East and the Middle east. The Middle East with all that oil revenue will now begin to shape economic events they will challenge the industrial west. This challenge will be led by six states of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain they have enjoyed the fastest and prolonged expansion for almost 30 years. The driving force is Oil from $24 a barrel in 2002 to $93 a barrel in 2007. Over the past 5 years GDP has risen to a heady 5.6 percent and is still expected to expand faster to around 5.9 per cent in 2008.
The region’s annual GDP is $735billion and they have the upper hand with huge oil reserves and demand from USA, Europe India and China they will seek to change world economics. The bad news for the USA is that these states are already disposing of dollar assets; Kuwait has already abandoned its dollar currency peg. What does this mean? Well as the dollar continues to weaken hundreds and billions of dollars will flow out of the Gulf and seek a safe haven in Gold, other commodities and the Euro. The Gulf States will then be able to acquire corporate stakes in the UK and the rest of Europe this would transform these Arab states from a petrodollar power into a global hub betting its future on investment, trade and services.

Who say’s money does not talk? King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al Saud the custodian of Saudi Arabia flew into London this week the first time in 20 years. His entourage a whopping 830 people on five 747’s
The British government has long been moaning about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record but with the king in town they can forget all that a sell him fighter warplanes, weapons and much more in deal worth millions of pounds and British jobs.

On closing just how many of us are paying attention to all this global problems? Wars rumours of wars, financial meltdown, this message was taken from a trader’s chat room I visit every now and again to see how they see the markets.

by fletchrrr 14 hours ago
The world is also coming to an end sooner than one would think.
On that note, bye for now.
E-Money

Thursday, October 18, 2007

BoA losses "Unacceptable"


It seems the loan crisis just won't go away. Bank of America's 3rd quarter profits virtually wiped out today as the sub-prime mortgage crisis extended across all credit markets.Just how much was lost? Well lets just say profits dived to $100 million from $1.43billion. BoA lost $607million in trading losses and a further $527million from structured products asset and mortgaged backed securities. This was worse than expected how much more can the banking industry take? Wamu also had a bad day the Seattle based bank announced it boosted the amount it set aside for loan and lease losses to $967 million, up from $166 million last year, and $372 million in the second quarter. It also increased provisions for loan losses to $323 million from $229 million in the second quarter.

Added to the bad news today the dollar fell again against the euro due to a jump in weekly jobless claims, investors now hoping a further interest cut is in the offing?
The euro was trading at $1.4296, up from $1.4167 late Wednesday. Sterling also was up against the dollar trading at $2.0444 from $2.0379 late Wednesday.
The Fed's policy committee will meet on Oct. 30-31

Look out for Porsche taking over Volkswagen later this month. VW has been in the doldrums for a while now and doing quite badly in the US market especially with the techno -savvy Phaeton other brands under VW are Bugatti, Bentley and Lamborghini. Porsche believe they can turn around VW by closing loss mmarking US plants, and looking at VW's generous wage bill, also non performing luxury brands as mentioned above. VW won't go quietly but the takeover is a question of when, not if.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

What's up with oil prices?


What's up with oil prices?

What’s going on? Oil prices upwards of $85 per barrel and some experts predicting $100 per barrel by year’s end crazy but possibly true. So what’s fuelling (pardon the pun) the dramatic rise in oil prices? Possible conflict between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq and as of this evening Turkish soldiers were on the border ready to enter and ready to crush Kurdish rebels based there. The historical enmity between the two go back a century, with the Americans not understanding the feud they are worried that a possible incursion would wreck stability in northern Iraq. Also bear in mind a lot of oil production is also based in the north. It does not take much these days to spook the markets. A weak dollar, talk of under supply and OPEC knocking hopes of a production rise has seen prices surging. Putting it mildly “supply is not matching demand”. OPEC has suggested it may raise production by 500,000 per day from November but Saudi Arabia the cartel’s leader has remained silent whether to increase production further. So what does that mean for you and I, price increases at the pumps, energy bills going up in the future, sluggish consumer spending that means that 50 inch plasma you promised yourself isn’t happening for now as you now have the extra cost of fuel for transport and heating. The stores are filled with stock they can’t move despite great discounts. Remember I said a consumer led recession some weeks ago? Well I have not seen movement for me to change my mind. If you have not got rid of that gas guzzler or car-pooling or taking alternative transport now’s the time to do it, also hurricane season does not officially end until the end of November so storms are always possible.

Keep an eye on those commodity prices Gold, Silver and black gold are at historical high prices. I know of some financial experts who have bought gold and gold coins to add to portfolios. Here’s a heads up gold was trading at $758.96 per oz, and Silver £373.50 per oz, Brent crude $84.24 per barrel. You can do some homework and check the Chicago markets and see how prices are going for Corn (at a all time high)and other commodities. Don’t just listen to these so called experts on CNBC and other financial shows read for yourself and study the trends. Globally we are not in good shape once you hear that the IMF, World Bank and financial bodies are adjusting growth figures that mean maybe trouble ahead.

We have had it all this summer the sub-prime fallout, Northern Rock and now this. 60% of UK mortgage applications are rejected proof that lenders are tightening lending after years of reckless approvals. This rethink followed warnings from The Bank of England about lending money that buyers can’t repay. The tightening is taking buyers out of the market fuelling a slowdown in price growth.

Over the coming weeks I’ll look at the buy to rent market, US banks and job losses, Bernanke and the ailing dollar.UK housing market the bubble about to burst
Now music watch, check out “Porgy and Bess” the George Gershwin opera re-worked by Miles Davis and Gil Evans one of my all time favourite jazz albums. Lush orchestrations, a wide-range of material between exuberant swingers and tender ballads, and plenty of virtuoso playing by Davis. Any appreciation of Porgy and Bess would be sorely lacking without mentioning Evans’ recasting of “Gone, Gone, Gone” (itself a wonderful performance) into “Gone.” The tune is a showcase for drummer Philly Joe Jones, who performs some unbelievable drum fills in between statements by the orchestra. An alternate take of the tune was added to the 1997 CD reissue illustrating the perfection of Jones’ playing on the master version.
Porgy and Bess is just one of many great albums that Miles Davis recorded over his lifetime. It reaches a higher plateau than most, though, in its way that it can reach the listener on both a musical and emotional level. That the album is still able to do this after almost fifty years is a testament to the rare magic that occurred in a New York studio over four days in the summer of 1958.
Enjoy………

Track listing: The Buzzard Song; Bess, You Is My Woman Now; Gone; Gone, Gone, Gone; Summertime; Oh Bess, Oh Where's My Bess; Prayer (Oh Doctor Jesus); Fisherman, Strawberry and Devil Crab; My Man's Gone Now; It Ain't Necessarily So; Here Come De Honey Man; I Loves You, Porgy; There's A Boat That's Leaving Soon For New York; I Loves You, Porgy (take 1, second version); Gone (take 4)
Personnel: Miles Davis - trumpet, flugelhorn with the Gil Evans Orchestra
Labels: What's up with oil prices? draft by E Money 10:09:00 PM Delete

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Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Marion I forgive you




I decided to comment on Marion Jones today and the bum-rap she is getting from the press. First Marion did wrong she cheated and that's a no no in my book.She had God given talents and at one stage was the fastest woman on earth no need for drugs, however I don't know what it is with elite athletes they always want more to be bigger, faster, so she resorted to illegal substances. Rumours began to spread and despite denials of wrong doing they would not go away. I believe God spoke to Marion telling her enough is enough come clean and seek my forgiveness, yes you will have to face the shame and the consequences for wrong doing but you will be forgiven that's the price you have to pay.All of us make mistakes but we must remember we have to pay the price for these mistakes. Marion asked for us to find it in us to forgive her for she was dishonest, she also said quite sincerely she asked God to forgive her, you can't ask for anyone bigger than that to forgive you, yes people will point fingers and say I told you so but God is bigger than that. So Marion I forgive you, yes you did wrong, but the hardest thing was to admit you had cheated.

Now back to press they seem to have very selective memories currently in the UK three jockeys are facing trial for throwing 27 races worth millions of pounds, they sold themselves for money, they cheated punters and brought the integrity of the sport of horse racing into dis-repute. Hold on these guys are not being ridiculed in the press, they have not been given the grilling and venom reporting that Marion picked up, why I ask are they not cheats too?

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Grey Dank October Day

We are having some grey dank weather at the moment leaving us wondering where the next ray of sunshine will come from. As I pour over more drab economic data where is it all going? Are we headed for a recession in the United States? Will the Fed cut interest rates again in October?

The banks are finally reporting the losses from the sub-prime fall out but I believe they are only telling us what we want to hear. USB AG announced write downs of $3.4bn from sub-prime loans and will post losses of about $690 million but the real problem facing banks will be job losses as the fancy debt packages they hold cannot be sold on furthermore they have dropped in value. USB AG will probably shed 1500 jobs worldwide by January 2008.

Citigroup announced write downs of $1.4bn and a 60% decline in profits for the third quarter losses will be around $600 million. Job losses are also expected at the bank along with Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. The centre for Economics and Business research warned up to 5,000 jobs will be shed in the Banking sector due to sub-prime losses. As banks write down these losses it will mean less in bonuses.

The consumer slow down has gathered pace with Ford reporting a sales drop of 21% for the month of September, Toyota slipped slightly as Honda saw gains with the Accord and CR-V. GM said sales were flat but had encouraging figures from the new Cadillac CTS.

Will the Fed cut interest rates in October? I think not Remember the technology crash in 2000? The Fed cut interest rates on 13 separate occasions from 6% right down to 1% this time with rising commodity prices and a strong Chinese economy; they can’t be that aggressive they risk fast rising inflation and an ongoing dollar collapse.

Where to investors run to in times like this? Gold it is at a 28 year high with a ounce costing $ 745.50 demand is rising very fast and I see it going higher, probably I should look at adding it to my pension fund, those of you in the US should consider adding Gold to your 401k plans.

On closing, I read that 317 young women become insolvent everyday in the UK it’s no laughing matter credit cards+ store cards+ women don’t mix who’s to blame? Discuss…………

Monday, October 1, 2007

Dollar weakness major cause of concern.

As I write the US trade deficit stands at $544,839,708,414.77. What does this number represent? The difference between the goods and services Americans sell to foreigners and the goods and services that Americans purchase from foreigners. A trade deficit with one country or in one year is not necessarily worrisome, and according to standard economic theory, will correct itself over time. But the theory has been proved wrong over the last 30 years as the United States has run consistent and increasing trade deficits. The enormous size of the trade deficits over the last several years raises the possibility of a severe international economic crisis should foreigners begin to dump the dollars they hold in world currency markets. The trade deficit is calculated on an annual basis, so the number above was $0.00 on January 1st, 2007.

One way to control trade deficits is to allow your currency to lose value (depreciate) this way your home produced goods (exports) become cheaper to overseas markets and imports from these countries become more expensive at home. However this is a short sighted view and in the case of a foreign country opening up a factory and investing in the United States the profits made in the United States end up in the pockets of foreign capitalists what I am trying to say as the late Earl of Stockton famously said “The longer America runs a trade and current account deficit, the more of its family silver will end up heading abroad” We saw this in the 1980’s when film Studio Columbia Tristar ended up being bought by Sony, we are also seeing middle eastern purchases of the Nasdaq and the major ports of the United states. Japanese dominance in the once American dominated car industry now sees Toyota as number car manufacturer in the US.

So why should be concerned? Periods of sustained dollar decline have never really been happy occasions for the world economy. In the early 1970’s, when the dollar came unstuck following the collapse of Bretton Woods, inflation, exchange rate volatility and commodity price shocks became the major economic challenges, creating a nirvana for speculators but a nightmare for everyone else. In the late 1980’s the dollar’s decline contributed to the stock market crash, Japan’s economic excesses and the depth of the European recession in the 1990’s.
So what awaits us in the future well the half point cut in US interest rates was a gamble by Ben Bernanke the dollar has declined in response to this cut it will fall further as the fall out from the housing market spreads through the rest of the economy. We have seen record car repossessions and now job cuts from the banks that lost billions in sub-prime debt. What we are also seeing is the slow down on the high street, car sales, electrical goods, etc. We could be seeing a consumer led recession, much more woe in the housing markets as mortgages that reset later this year and early next year will lead to more home foreclosures.

We are seeing dollar losses against the Euro, Yen and Sterling, but more alarming is Saudi Arabia not cutting its interest rates inline with the Federal Reserve, signalling that the oil-rich gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia holds a staggering $800bn in US treasuries and what they don’t want is a inflation threat added to the recessionary conditions in the United States. The threat now is global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. Just last week the latest US government data on foreign holdings showed a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, what the US does not want is to be starved of capital inflows to cover its current account deficit expected to reach $850bn this year or 6.5 of GDP. Foreign investors are funding 25pc to 30pc of US credit and they are gradually pulling out.

In a nutshell falling US rates could trigger a reversal yen “carry trade” causing massive flows from the US back to Japan and China.

Bush’s fiscal policies are at the heart of these problems. A policy of a weaker dollar might seem like a solution for the US but the longer term consequences might prove to be quite a lot more painful for all concerned.

E-Money